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Dominant Teplice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Pardubice 3-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.61 xG and Pardubice 0.78 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.87 / defence 0.84 against Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.36, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 57% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 18%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 41%, Pardubice 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Pardubice's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.22 PPG, Pardubice 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights