🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Pardubice 2-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.82 xG and Pardubice 0.89 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Pardubice attack 0.67 / defence 1.28, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 59% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 18%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 46%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.12 PPG, Pardubice 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights