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Poisson model rates Teplice at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Teplice. A 0.50 PPG lead over Pardubice (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Pardubice — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus Pardubice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 46% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.82 xG and Pardubice 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.946 / defence 1.086 | Pardubice attack 0.666 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.229. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Teplice games / 53 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 59% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 18%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Pardubice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 70% | Pardubice 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 2W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Teplice 9 – 6 Pardubice • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Teplice 50% / Draw 17% / Pardubice 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 59% / draw 23% / away 18% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.71 (51% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L • Pardubice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Teplice home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Pardubice away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Form edge: Teplice lead by 0.50 PPG (1.20 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (Teplice): Poisson projects 1.82 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Pardubice): Poisson projects 0.89 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.40 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.71 (51% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Teplice — Teplice at 59% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 59% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Teplice 1.82 / Pardubice 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.946 / def 1.086 | Pardubice attack 0.666 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Teplice (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Pardubice xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Pardubice kick off?
Teplice vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Teplice 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Teplice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Pardubice part of?
Teplice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 59% chance of winning, Pardubice a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Teplice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
• Record (6 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 2W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Teplice 9 – 6 Pardubice • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Teplice 50% / Draw 17% / Pardubice 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 59% / draw 23% / away 18% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.71 (51% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in?
• Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L • Pardubice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Teplice home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Pardubice away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Form edge: Teplice lead by 0.50 PPG (1.20 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (Teplice): Poisson projects 1.82 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Pardubice): Poisson projects 0.89 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.40 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.71 (51% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Teplice — Teplice at 59% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Teplice vs Pardubice?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture