🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Teplice 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 2-3 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.71 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.13 / defence 1.25, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 46% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 30%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 49%, Mlada Boleslav 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.15 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights