🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Hradec Králové.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Teplice — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Hradec Králové away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Hradec Králové have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Teplice's 2 victories.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Teplice in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Hradec Králové 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Hradec Králové 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.00 xG and Hradec Králové 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.764 / defence 0.935 | Hradec Králové attack 1.082 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Teplice's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Teplice games / 59 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights