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Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Teplice 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.00 xG and Hradec Králové 1.19 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Hradec Králové attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights