Teplice vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Teplice are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Hradec Králové have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Teplice's 3 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.1 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with Teplice winning.
It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 42% | Hradec Králové 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.21 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.944 / defence 0.978 | Hradec Králové attack 0.796 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 Teplice games / 43 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Hradec Králové 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Hradec Králové lead the H2H ledger, but Teplice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Hradec Králové 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Teplice 1.21 / Hradec Králové 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.944 / def 0.978 | Hradec Králové attack 0.796 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Teplice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 6W.
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.94x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.60
34%
2.95
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.21
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Teplice and 1.00 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 16W 15D 17L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 20W 11D 17L from 48 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.31 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.29 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 20W 11D 17L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Teplice's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.29 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Teplice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Hradec Králové 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 42%, Hradec Králové 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 46% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games; Hradec Králové in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Teplice's recent matches and 54% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 46% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.