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Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.36 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 0.91 against Hradec Králové attack 1.24 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 30% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 41%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 41%, Hradec Králové 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights