Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga (Middle Play-offs - Final). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Teplice — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Teplice's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Teplice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hradec Králové away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Teplice have won 1, Hradec Králové 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended Teplice 0–1 Hradec Králové — a Hradec Králové win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 59% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Hradec Králové 48%). Note also that Hradec Králové surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.04 xG and Hradec Králové 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.893 / defence 0.911 | Hradec Králové attack 0.737 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Hradec Králové bring a tight defence (rating 0.762, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Teplice's projected output down. Hradec Králové's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Teplice's last 60 games and Hradec Králové's last 60.
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.67 | Draw 2.92 | Hradec Králové 3.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Teplice 1.04 / Hradec Králové 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.893 / def 0.911 | Hradec Králové attack 0.737 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Hradec Králové xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Teplice 0 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Teplice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (Middle Play-offs - Final) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Teplice and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Teplice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.89x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 60 games and Hradec Králové's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.67
34%
2.92
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.91
0.87
Hradec Králové xG
2.67
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Teplice and 0.87 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 22W 17D 27L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 24W 16D 26L from 66 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.26 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 33 home games (13W 13D 7L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 10W 10D 13L from their last 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Teplice (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 24W 16D 26L in their last 66 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Teplice's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.58 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Teplice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Hradec Králové 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 52%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 46% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 27% of games; Hradec Králové in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Teplice's recent matches and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 46% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Teplice's recent matches and 67% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Middle Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.04 xG and Hradec Králové 0.87 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Hradec Králové attack 0.74 / defence 0.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 28%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.26 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.