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Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Dukla Praha 2-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Relegation Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.95 xG and Dukla Praha 0.90 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dukla Praha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.71 / defence 0.92 against Dukla Praha attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 34% | Draw 34% | Dukla Praha 31%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Dukla Praha 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (68 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (68 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.18 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights