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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Teplice take on Dukla Praha.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Group - 4 as Teplice welcome Dukla Praha to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Dukla Praha — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Dukla Praha's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Teplice) versus 1.10 (Dukla Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Teplice, 0 for Dukla Praha and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Teplice trading profile (68 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Dukla Praha trading profile (68 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus Dukla Praha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Dukla Praha 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.95 xG and Dukla Praha 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.714 / defence 0.924 | Dukla Praha attack 0.808 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Teplice's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 34% | Dukla Praha 31%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Dukla Praha 3.23. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Dukla Praha 60%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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