Teplice 2-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Teplice take on Dukla Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Group - 4 as Teplice welcome Dukla Praha to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dukla Praha — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dukla Praha's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Teplice) versus 1.10 (Dukla Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Teplice, 0 for Dukla Praha and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Teplice trading profile (68 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dukla Praha trading profile (68 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus Dukla Praha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Dukla Praha 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.95 xG and Dukla Praha 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.714 / defence 0.924 | Dukla Praha attack 0.808 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Teplice's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 34% | Dukla Praha 31%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Dukla Praha 3.23. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Dukla Praha 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 4 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 34% | Dukla Praha 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Teplice 0.95 / Dukla Praha 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.714 / def 0.924 | Dukla Praha attack 0.808 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Dukla Praha xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Teplice 2 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Dukla Praha part of?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha is a Relegation Group - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 34% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Teplice and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
Record (5 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 4 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Dukla Praha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.71) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
34%
2.90
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.85
0.90
Dukla Praha xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.1 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Teplice and 0.90 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 20W 20D 28L from 68 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 12W 23D 33L across 68 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.18 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 14W 6D 15L from 35 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 5W 13D 17L across 35 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.82 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Dukla Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 20W 20D 28L in their last 68 games (1.18 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 12W 23D 33L in their last 68 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Dukla Praha away?
Teplice's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.37 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Teplice
4
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
From 6 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 49%, Dukla Praha 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Teplice) and 43% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Teplice's recent matches and 49% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Teplice's recent games and 43% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Dukla Praha 2-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Relegation Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.95 xG and Dukla Praha 0.90 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dukla Praha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.71 / defence 0.92 against Dukla Praha attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 34% | Draw 34% | Dukla Praha 31%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Dukla Praha 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (68 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (68 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.18 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.