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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Teplice and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice and Dukla Praha finished level at 2-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.28 xG and Dukla Praha 0.74 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dukla Praha outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 0.81 against Dukla Praha attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 49% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 21%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 40%, Dukla Praha 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Teplice 1.13 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights