🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Baník Ostrava 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.13 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.85 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.68 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Teplice 39% | Draw 36% | Baník Ostrava 25%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 48%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Teplice's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights