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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 19, as Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.43 xG and Slovan Liberec 2.08 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.24 / defence 1.20 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.36 / defence 0.82, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 26% | Draw 22% | Slovan Liberec 52%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Slovan Liberec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 1.82 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights