Sparta Praha 0-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sparta Praha face Plzen.

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Analysis & Preview

Plzen travel to epet ARENA to take on Sparta Praha in Czech Liga (Championship Group - 3). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sparta Praha stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Sparta Praha have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Plzen have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Plzen have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sparta Praha 2.20 PPG, Plzen 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Sparta Praha have won 2, Plzen 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Feb 2026, ended Sparta Praha 0–0 Plzen — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 64% versus Plzen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 61% | Plzen 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.67 xG and Plzen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.563 / defence 1.024 | Plzen attack 1.037 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.200. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.563 — their 1.67 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen bring a tight defence (rating 0.772, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sparta Praha's projected output down. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 60 games and Plzen's last 60.

Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 46% | Draw 26% | Plzen 28%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.19 | Draw 3.87 | Plzen 3.52. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 70% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 30% (last 10 away games).

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