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Stalemate at Sparta Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha and Plzen finished level at 0-0 at epet ARENA, Championship Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.67 xG and Plzen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sparta Praha fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.56 / defence 1.02 against Plzen attack 1.04 / defence 0.77, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 46% | Draw 26% | Plzen 28%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Plzen's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 1.95 PPG, Plzen 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights