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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Sparta Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Sparta Praha 2-4 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.12 xG and Pardubice 1.17 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Pardubice outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.30 / defence 1.00 against Pardubice attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 19%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 63%, Pardubice 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Pardubice's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights