🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Pardubice.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Sparta Praha and Pardubice meet at epet ARENA in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sparta Praha have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at epet ARENA, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Pardubice (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Pardubice have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form favours the hosts. Sparta Praha's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Pardubice's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Sparta Praha, who have won 9 of the last 9 meetings against Pardubice — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Sparta Praha winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 9 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 71% versus Pardubice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 63% | Pardubice 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.12 xG and Pardubice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.298 / defence 1.000 | Pardubice attack 0.923 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.267. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Sparta Praha games / 46 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 19%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Pardubice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 90% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights