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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Karviná 2-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.73 xG and Karviná 1.59 xG, a combined 4.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Karviná landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.64 / defence 1.21 against Karviná attack 1.09 / defence 1.19, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 61% | Draw 19% | Karviná 20%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 64%, Karviná 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Karviná's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights