Sparta Praha vs Karviná – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Karviná 4-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.88 xG and Karviná 1.45 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Karviná attack 1.04 / defence 1.23, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 46% | Draw 26% | Karviná 28%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 63%, Karviná 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Karviná's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights