Sparta Praha vs Karviná – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.03x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.04x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.79
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.33
1.45
Karviná xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
4%
23.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.45 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.