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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Hradec Králové 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 2-1 at epet ARENA, Championship Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.86 xG and Hradec Králové 1.28 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.54 / defence 1.02 against Hradec Králové attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 24% | Hradec Králové 26%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 59%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.54. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights