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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hradec Králové.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 2-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.87 xG and Hradec Králové 1.44 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.21 / defence 1.19 against Hradec Králové attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 29%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 64%, Hradec Králové 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights