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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at epet ARENA, Championship Group - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.27 xG and FK Jablonec 1.24 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FK Jablonec landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.58 / defence 1.02 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 60% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 19%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 1.94 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights