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Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat FK Jablonec 3-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.08 xG and FK Jablonec 1.30 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.54 / defence 1.05 against FK Jablonec attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 22%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, FK Jablonec 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 1.95 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights