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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Dukla Praha 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Dukla Praha 3-2 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Dukla Praha 0.74 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dukla Praha outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.17 / defence 0.94 against Dukla Praha attack 0.66 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 17%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 58%, Dukla Praha 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights