🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Praha vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Dukla Praha travel to epet ARENA to take on Sparta Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Praha stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Sparta Praha's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at epet ARENA this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at epet ARENA than their overall form suggests.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Dukla Praha's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sparta Praha at 1.40 PPG versus Dukla Praha's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sparta Praha have won 1, Dukla Praha 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sparta Praha trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Dukla Praha trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 68% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 58% | Dukla Praha 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Dukla Praha 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.166 / defence 0.944 | Dukla Praha attack 0.661 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.187. Data: 35 Sparta Praha games / 35 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 17%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Dukla Praha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 60% | Dukla Praha 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights