Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.36 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.19 / defence 1.16 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 64%, Bohemians 1905 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights