Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.19x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.00x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.53
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.97
1.36
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.36 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.