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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Baník Ostrava 5-2 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.52 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.94 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.27 / defence 1.10 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 22%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Baník Ostrava 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Praha's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 1.91 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights