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Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Zlin 2-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.56 xG and Zlin 0.82 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zlin landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Zlin attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 55% | Draw 25% | Zlin 20%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 42%, Zlin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Zlin's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.63 PPG, Zlin 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights