Slovan Liberec 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 40%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Slovan Liberec vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Slovan Liberec welcome Plzen to Stadion u Nisy. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovan Liberec have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion u Nisy this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 50% versus Plzen 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 40% | Plzen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.49 xG and Plzen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.195 / defence 0.892 | Plzen attack 1.089 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.358. Data: 36 Slovan Liberec games / 35 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 28% | Plzen 32%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Plzen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 50% | Plzen 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 28% | Plzen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.49 / Plzen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.195 / def 0.892 | Plzen attack 1.089 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Plzen xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Plzen kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 40% chance of winning, Plzen a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Plzen in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Plzen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Plzen's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.60
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.81
1.32
Plzen xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.32 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec's recent record stands at 13W 9D 16L from 38 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 2L across 38 games — 2.42 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovan Liberec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovan Liberec have managed 8W 3D 7L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 10W 6D 2L across 18 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plzen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.82 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Plzen have gone 28W 8D 2L in their last 38 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.50 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Plzen in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
2
Draws
5
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Plzen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 39%, Plzen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Slovan Liberec and 33% for Plzen.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 44%; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 44% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 33% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Plzen tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Plzen in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slovan Liberec 0-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.49 xG and Plzen 1.32 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.20 / defence 0.89 against Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 28% | Plzen 32%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 40%, Plzen 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.