Pardubice 0-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Pardubice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Pardubice, 1.10 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pardubice lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–5 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 55% versus Sigma Olomouc 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 62% | Sigma Olomouc 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.07 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.805 / defence 1.176 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.839 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.359. Data: 36 Pardubice games / 36 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 42%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Sigma Olomouc 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Sigma Olomouc 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Pardubice 1.07 / Sigma Olomouc 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.805 / def 1.176 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.839 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Pardubice 0 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 29% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (2 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.84x) against Pardubice's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
29%
3.50
30%
3.36
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.41
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.34 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 10W 9D 21L from 40 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 16L across 40 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Pardubice against 1.20 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 4W 8D 7L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.25 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Pardubice's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.05 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 1-5 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Pardubice 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 42%, Sigma Olomouc 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pardubice) and 42% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pardubice have failed to score in 42% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pardubice's recent matches and 32% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pardubice's recent games and 42% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Pardubice 0-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.07 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.18 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 42%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 62%, Sigma Olomouc 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.98 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.