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Stalemate at Slovan Liberec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 0-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.51 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.11 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 44% | Draw 30% | Mlada Boleslav 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 43%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.45 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights