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Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Slovan Liberec 0-1 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.65 xG and Hradec Králové 0.74 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 0.72 against Hradec Králové attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 58% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 15%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Hradec Králové win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 44%, Hradec Králové 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.49 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights