Slovan Liberec 4-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Slovan Liberec at Stadion u Nisy this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Slovan Liberec, 1.60 for České Budějovice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Slovan Liberec 1W, České Budějovice 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–3 with České Budějovice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 52% versus České Budějovice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 48% | České Budějovice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 2.05 xG and České Budějovice 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.985 / defence 1.162 | České Budějovice attack 0.828 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Slovan Liberec games / 60 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 56% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 21%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | České Budějovice 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 70% | České Budějovice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 56% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Slovan Liberec 2.05 / České Budějovice 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.985 / def 1.162 | České Budějovice attack 0.828 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.20
České Budějovice xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Slovan Liberec 4 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 56% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
Record (5 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 2 | České Budějovice 2W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (0.98) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.83x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.26
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
3.25
1.20
České Budějovice xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
3%
37.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.20 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 20W 15D 28L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
České Budějovice's form line: 20W 14D 29L from 63 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.17 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (12W 7D 12L).
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 4W 9D 18L from 31 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.27 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 20W 15D 28L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 20W 14D 29L in their last 63 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or České Budějovice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.39 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 4-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 48%, České Budějovice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Slovan Liberec) and 58% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 36% of games; České Budějovice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 58% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 58% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 4-0 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat České Budějovice 4-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 2.05 xG and České Budějovice 1.20 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against České Budějovice attack 0.83 / defence 1.25, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 56% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 21%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 48%, České Budějovice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.19 PPG, České Budějovice 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.