České Budějovice 3-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for České Budějovice, 1 for Slovan Liberec and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Slovan Liberec winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 55% versus Slovan Liberec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 60% | Slovan Liberec 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.65 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.040 / defence 1.038 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.873 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 České Budějovice games / 60 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 48% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 25%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Slovan Liberec 4.00. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 50% | Slovan Liberec 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 48% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG České Budějovice 1.65 / Slovan Liberec 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.040 / def 1.038 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.873 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Slovan Liberec xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
České Budějovice 3 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 48% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
Record (4 meetings): České Budějovice 1W | Draws 2 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.04) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.87x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.68
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.79
1.13
Slovan Liberec xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
5%
21.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.13 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 19W 14D 29L from 62 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 27L across 62 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.21 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 15W 5D 11L from 31 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 8W 8D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Current Season
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 19W 14D 29L in their last 62 games (1.15 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.61 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 4-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
3
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 52%, Slovan Liberec 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (České Budějovice) and 52% (Slovan Liberec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 32% of games; Slovan Liberec in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 55% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of České Budějovice's matches and 52% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Slovan Liberec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Slovan Liberec 3-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.65 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.13 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 48% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 25%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 60%, Slovan Liberec 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.15 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.