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Stalemate at Slovan Liberec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 finished level at 0-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.23 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.00 / defence 0.88 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 45%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.43 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights