🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion U Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion U Nisy — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.40 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slovan Liberec lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Slovan Liberec winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 48% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 45% | Bohemians 1905 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.23 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.000 / defence 0.878 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.962 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.243. Data: 40 Slovan Liberec games / 39 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 50% | Bohemians 1905 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights