Slovácko 1-3 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Slovácko welcome Teplice to Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Teplice — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Slovácko register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Teplice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Slovácko have won 3, Teplice 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 49% versus Teplice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 51% | Teplice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.04 xG and Teplice 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.863 / defence 1.170 | Teplice attack 1.064 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.191. Data: 42 Slovácko games / 42 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 24% | Draw 31% | Teplice 45%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Teplice 2.22. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 70% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 24% | Draw 31% | Teplice 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Slovácko 1.04 / Teplice 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.863 / def 1.170 | Teplice attack 1.064 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Teplice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Teplice xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Teplice kick off?
Slovácko vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Slovácko 1 - 3 Teplice.
Where is Slovácko vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion.
What competition is Slovácko vs Teplice part of?
Slovácko vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 24% chance of winning, Teplice a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Slovácko and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
Record (9 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 2 | Teplice 4W.
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.86) and Teplice's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
24%
4.12
31%
3.25
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.52
1.48
Teplice xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
6%
18.14
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.48 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko's recent record stands at 10W 12D 25L from 47 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 17L across 47 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 0.89 PPG, Teplice on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 6W 6D 10L from 22 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 7W 8D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.23 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 10W 12D 25L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while Teplice have gone 15W 15D 17L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Teplice away?
Teplice's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.09 PPG; Teplice away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Teplice in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Teplice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Slovácko 1-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 54%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Slovácko) and 46% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 32%; Slovácko have failed to score in 27% of games; Teplice in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Slovácko's recent matches and 54% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Slovácko's matches and 46% of Teplice's.
Do Slovácko and Teplice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Teplice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovácko 1-3 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.04 xG and Teplice 1.48 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Teplice attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 24% | Draw 31% | Teplice 45%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 51%, Teplice 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 0.89 PPG, Teplice 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.