Slovácko 1-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plzen make the trip to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to face Slovácko in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Slovácko (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovácko have posted 2W 4D 4L at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season.
Plzen have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plzen have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Plzen arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Slovácko, 2 for Plzen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 2–4 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Slovácko goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plzen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 43% versus Plzen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 45% | Plzen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 0.92 xG and Plzen 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.763 / defence 0.823 | Plzen attack 1.202 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.227. Slovácko's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Slovácko games / 42 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 26% | Draw 34% | Plzen 41%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Plzen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 50% | Plzen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 26% | Draw 34% | Plzen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Slovácko 0.92 / Plzen 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.763 / def 0.823 | Plzen attack 1.202 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Plzen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Plzen xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Plzen kick off?
Slovácko vs Plzen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Plzen?
Slovácko 1 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Slovácko vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Plzen part of?
Slovácko vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 26% chance of winning, Plzen a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Slovácko and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Plzen?
Record (6 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 2 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Slovácko and Plzen in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Slovácko vs Plzen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.76x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.20x) against Slovácko's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
26%
3.90
34%
2.96
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.13
1.21
Plzen xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.21 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Slovácko have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 16W 12D 19L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 29W 10D 8L from 47 games, 2.06 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovácko.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 12W 6D 5L from 23 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovácko are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.09 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Plzen have gone 29W 10D 8L in their last 47 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.35 PPG; Plzen away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Plzen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 3-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovácko
3
Draws
3
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 4, Plzen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Slovácko 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Plzen?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 48%, Plzen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Slovácko) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 30% of games; Plzen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slovácko's recent matches and 61% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Slovácko's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Plzen tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Plzen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Plzen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Plzen 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.92 xG and Plzen 1.21 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plzen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.76 / defence 0.82 against Plzen attack 1.20 / defence 0.88, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 26% | Draw 34% | Plzen 41%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 45%, Plzen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plzen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Slovácko winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.