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Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat Slovácko 0-3 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Relegation Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.30 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.72 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 28% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 46%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.00 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights