Slovácko 0-3 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Group - 4 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Slovácko at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mlada Boleslav are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slovácko, 1 for Mlada Boleslav and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 43% versus Mlada Boleslav 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 46% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.30 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.001 / defence 1.239 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.155 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Data: 60 Slovácko games / 60 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 28% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 46%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Mlada Boleslav 2.17. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 60% | Mlada Boleslav 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 4 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 28% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Slovácko 1.30 / Mlada Boleslav 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.001 / def 1.239 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.155 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Mlada Boleslav xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Slovácko 0 - 3 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav is a Relegation Group - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 28% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (8 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 5 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav in?
Slovácko (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovácko's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
28%
3.55
25%
3.94
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.02
1.72
Mlada Boleslav xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
5%
19.79
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.72 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 68 games, going 16W 20D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.15 PPG from 68 outings (19W 21D 28L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.00 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 11W 10D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.09 points per game from 33 outings (9W 9D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.38 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 16W 20D 32L in their last 68 games (1.00 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 19W 21D 28L in their last 68 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Slovácko's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.30 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mlada Boleslav have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2024, when Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovácko
5
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 46%, Mlada Boleslav 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Slovácko) and 61% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Slovácko's recent matches and 61% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Slovácko's recent games and 61% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Slovácko 0-3 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Relegation Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.30 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.72 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 28% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 46%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.00 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.