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Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Slovácko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Slovácko 1-3 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.38 xG and Hradec Králové 1.13 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Hradec Králové attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 41% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 29%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 44%, Hradec Králové 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights