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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Slovácko 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Slovácko 1-2 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.39 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.12 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slovácko 42% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slovácko's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slovácko 0.96 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights