Slavia Praha 3-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Slavia Praha. A 0.80 PPG lead over Teplice (2.50 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Slavia Praha, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Teplice — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Teplice winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 32% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 54% | Teplice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.56 xG and Teplice 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.147 / defence 0.946 | Teplice attack 0.926 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.287. Data: 33 Slavia Praha games / 32 Teplice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 28% | Teplice 26%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 3.85. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 40% | Teplice 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 28% | Teplice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Slavia Praha 1.56 / Teplice 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.147 / def 0.946 | Teplice attack 0.926 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Teplice xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Slavia Praha 3 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Teplice part of?
Slavia Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 46% chance of winning, Teplice a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Slavia Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
Record (8 meetings): Slavia Praha 5W | Draws 2 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Teplice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.93x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (33/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.61
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.69
1.13
Teplice xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
5%
18.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.13 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.59 PPG on a 31W 3D 3L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 13W 8D 16L from 37 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.32 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.88 PPG from 17 outings (16W 1D 0L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 6D 8L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.54 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 31W 3D 3L in their last 37 games (2.59 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Teplice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.88 PPG; Teplice away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Teplice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Teplice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2025, when Teplice 1-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Teplice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 41%, Teplice 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Slavia Praha) and 35% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Teplice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 53% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 35% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Teplice in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Teplice 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.56 xG and Teplice 1.13 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 28% | Teplice 26%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, Teplice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Teplice's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.