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Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plzen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Plzen 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.36 xG and Plzen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.25 / defence 0.75 against Plzen attack 1.03 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 30% | Plzen 25%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 56%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Plzen's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights