Slavia Praha 5-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Slavia Praha face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FK Jablonec make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga (Championship Group - 3). The match kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Slavia Praha at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Slavia Praha, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against FK Jablonec — FK Jablonec have 1 win, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.4 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Slavia Praha 4–3 FK Jablonec — a Slavia Praha win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Slavia Praha and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 4.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 44% versus FK Jablonec 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 54% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.81 xG and FK Jablonec 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.268 / defence 0.739 | FK Jablonec attack 1.008 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.200. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.268 — their 1.81 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha have a tight defence (rating 0.739), which is pulling FK Jablonec's projected output down. Data: built from Slavia Praha's last 60 games and FK Jablonec's last 60.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 58% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 17%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.72 | Draw 4.09 | FK Jablonec 5.78. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Slavia Praha's last 10 home games and FK Jablonec's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Slavia Praha 40% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Group - 3 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 58% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Slavia Praha 1.81 / FK Jablonec 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.268 / def 0.739 | FK Jablonec attack 1.008 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FK Jablonec xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Slavia Praha 5 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Group - 3) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 58% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.01x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Slavia Praha's last 60 games and FK Jablonec's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.09
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.71
0.89
FK Jablonec xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
3%
35.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.89 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.48 PPG on a 51W 11D 4L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
FK Jablonec's form line: 33W 13D 20L from 66 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FK Jablonec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.82 PPG from their last 33 home games (30W 3D 0L).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 16W 4D 13L from their last 33 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.52 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; FK Jablonec in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Slavia Praha (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slavia Praha
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 51W 11D 4L in their last 66 games (2.48 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 33W 13D 20L in their last 66 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.82 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won FK Jablonec 0-5 Slavia Praha on 31 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
1
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slavia Praha have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: FK Jablonec 0-5 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 39%, FK Jablonec 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Slavia Praha) and 42% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 39%; FK Jablonec in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 36% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 42% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 79% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 5-1 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.81 xG and FK Jablonec 0.89 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.27 / defence 0.74 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 58% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 17%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.39 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.