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Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 5-1 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.81 xG and FK Jablonec 0.89 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.27 / defence 0.74 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 58% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 17%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slavia Praha's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.39 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights