Slavia Praha 3-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slavia Praha host Dukla Praha at Fortuna Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Slavia Praha — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's away record: 0W 2D 3L from 5 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slavia Praha are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.90 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 73% of the time.
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 27% versus Dukla Praha 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 54% | Dukla Praha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.96 xG and Dukla Praha 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.400 / defence 0.654 | Dukla Praha attack 0.633 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.283. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.654 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Slavia Praha games / 11 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 70% | Draw 23% | Dukla Praha 7%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.43 | Draw 4.35 | Dukla Praha 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (70%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 30% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 70% | Draw 23% | Dukla Praha 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 37% | xG Slavia Praha 1.96 / Dukla Praha 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.400 / def 0.654 | Dukla Praha attack 0.633 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (70%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Dukla Praha xG
37%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha?
Slavia Praha 3 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha part of?
Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 70% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 7% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Slavia Praha and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Dukla Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Dukla Praha in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Dukla Praha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.40x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 3-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
70%
1.43
23%
4.36
7%
13.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.49
0.53
Dukla Praha xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
13.59
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
41%
2.44
1%
95.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.9 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.53 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 10W 1D 0L from 11 games, a 2.82 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 6L across 11 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dukla Praha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dukla Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.27 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.91 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slavia Praha have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 73% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 10W 1D 0L in their last 11 games (2.82 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Dukla Praha away?
Slavia Praha's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 3.00 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 73% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 3, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Dukla Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 40%, Dukla Praha 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Slavia Praha) and 20% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 40% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 20% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Dukla Praha 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.96 xG and Dukla Praha 0.53 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.40 / defence 0.65 against Dukla Praha attack 0.63 / defence 1.02, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 70% | Draw 23% | Dukla Praha 7%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, Dukla Praha 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 73% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.82 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.